Cluster: Marathon Runner
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs185
Current market price: Rs163
Result highlights
Results synopsis:
Marico’s Q3FY2012 consolidated net sales grew by 29.4% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,057.8 crore, driven by a mix of volume growth (of 20% YoY) and price-led growth (of approximately 10% YoY) in Q3FY2012. The gross margins improved by 114bps YoY and 518bps sequentially to 48.5%. However the operating margins were down by 68bps YoY to 11.5% mainly on account of a higher than expected surge in the ad-spends during the quarter. The operating profit grew by 22.1% YoY to Rs121.7 crore. However higher Y-o-Y depreciation charges and a higher incidence of tax (after adjusting for reversal of excess income tax provision of Rs5.6 crore for the previous year) resulted in a 12.9% YoY growth in the adjusted profit after tax (PAT) to Rs78.5 crore.
Upward revision in estimates: We have revised upward our earnings estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 by 1.3% and 4.1% respectively to factor in a higher than expected top line growth and an improvement in the gross margins.
Outlook and valuation
Despite of inflationary pressures, Marico continued to surprise us with the volume in its domestic consumer products business growing by mid-teens in the past two quarters. This gives us an indication that the categories in which Marico is operating are not feeling the heat of sustained inflationary pressure. We expect the mid-teen volume growth to sustain in the domestic market. We expect the international business to grow by around 20% YoY on the back of several initiatives undertaken by the company in various international markets. Overall we expect the top line to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% over FY2011-13 and the bottom line to grow at a CAGR of 30% over the same period (on the back of expected improvement in the margins due to softening of raw material prices).
In line with the upward revision in earnings estimates, we revise our price target to Rs185 (based on 26x its FY2013E EPS of Rs7.1). The stock has run up after posting a strong operating performance in Q3FY2012, hence there is limited upside visibility from the current levels. Thus we maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock. At the current market price the stock trades at 31.0x its FY2012E EPS of Rs5.3 and 22.9x its FY2013E EPS of Rs7.1.